Louise Mensch writes from New York on what she’s heard about Hillary and why Cameron should keep faith with Chris Christie.
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It’s strange watching the parallels develop. After the disaster of the McCain-Palin campaign (think Hague as leader), the GOP at least was respectable under Romney (think Michael Howard). But they are now where Howard was – no hope of victory, with no light in sight down a long, dark tunnel and the need for major reform.
The GOP needs to learn the lessons of Nate Silver and actually read the polls. The Romney campaign was not bullshitting us – they just had horrible numbers. The true numbers would have told Mitt he never stood a chance.
And the numbers would also tell GOP believers that they need to understand that the ground has decisively shifted away from them. Hispanics are no longer voting for them. Women are not voting for them. Terrifyingly, young people actually are voting. The last election saw a surge in the youth vote, and that almost never happens. The GOP cannot win if it becomes the party of Todd Aiken, of white males. There are not enough of those to get anywhere near the White House.
“Ah,” cries the blogosphere, “but we nominated liberals in McCain and Romney and look what happened!” Yes, well, the terminally dull Romney got the nod because no other candidate worth anything wanted to chance his arm against the guy who got Bin Laden. And McCain, despite his unique status as a legendary American war hero and political maverick, cannot speak well; and this is the television age. Without a TelePrompTer, as we saw at the G20, Mr. Obama tends to fumble the ball. But with one, he is unstoppable; he has brilliant speechwriters and can deliver lines superbly. No amount of “town hall meetings” can stop a talented demagogue. So the post hoc ergo propter hoc error is to assume that in tacking to the right, America will elect the GOP again. It is becoming more British; it is becoming more centrist. Ted Cruz may get the firebrands going, but immigration reform is hugely popular in America. The GOP needs to make a list: “popular things” – and ask itself why it is against them.
It needs to follow the model of the red governors who win blue states – because the USA today is itself a blue state. And failing to recognize that shift means obsoleteness. Schwarzenegger won in California because he was ready to detoxify the Republican brand: with magnetism, humour and fame, yes, but also with initiatives for after-school programmes and green energy. He was a Tory they could vote for.
Hillary Clinton is definitely running. I know this because she said so to somebody I know in the Hamptons this summer. I am honestly not sure she is beatable. But the best chance the GOP has of beating her is a candidate who will fight the General Election, not the primary. That candidate is Governor Christie, of New Jersey – the big man who’s socially liberal, for civil unions, who took on the teaching unions and won, who co-operated with Obama and ripped the hell out of a Republican Congress on behalf of his state. Like Schwarzenegger, he pitches himself as post-partisan. Socially liberal enough that centrists can vote for him. Blue collar enough to win in Ohio (neither McCain nor Romney had that). He likely brings New Jersey, which changes the electoral map.
He will need a woman as running mate. And I know exactly whom he should pick. Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico. A former Dem who joined the GOP over economics, Martinez is pro-choice, pro-gun (Christie is mostly pro-life, anti-gun), a Republican from a small blue swing state (5 electoral votes), a competent woman, as witness her speech at Romney’s convention, and most importantly, a non-Cuban Hispanic. Non-Cuban matters to the majority of Hispanic voters outside of Florida. Women will demand a woman on that ticket and Martinez covers a ton of ground.
In these days of Osborne’s economic triumph it is hard to recall that there is also a story about plummeting Tory membership. Of course; because Cameron has reached out to a far, far larger constituency, Tory voters. I know that in fighting to win my own marginal seat I was supremely grateful to our activists and members, but aiming to appeal to a wider, greater group. The party should rethink membership, with its fees and off-putting structure. If I were CCHQ, membership prices would be slashed to the bone and free for members of the Armed Forces. Activists and supporters would be digitally targeted. I would look to leverage the kind of data that tech companies use. And I would campaign virally.
Furthermore, I would allow national membership as well as by constituency. Many people are put off by a local party geared to quizzes and bridge nights; students and twenty-somethings are debating on Twitter, reading Guido Fawkes and staying away from the formal Yahoo nature of Conservative Future and Young Conservatives (a perennial party embarrassment).
Registering, involving and staking out a new generation of Conservatives cannot be done the old fashioned stubs and dinners way. It is not that we should abandon traditional supporters, we should thank and embrace them. But every Conservative PPC and MP must remember that it is not the seventy people in their Conservative Clubs who elected them, but seventy-five thousand voters in their seats.
As a techie, I always encourage sites to have “low entry barriers”. We need to go for Registered Conservatives and count them as our members. We need to reform selection and the tiny clique that controls the candidates’ list. We need a central, national party, and a huge database of phone numbers and emails. We need single-click Twitter ads that capture an email upon tapping. But most of all we need to remember that for all those who loathed equal marriage and want out of the EU yesterday (and I myself want total reform à la Norway) – that to win we must appeal to ex Labour, ex Lib Dem, ex Green voters. We must be Schwarzenegger, Cameron and Christie, Martinez and Rubio. We must fight in the centre. Because that is where America is heading – and where Britain has already arrived. Cameron’s huskies bought Osborne’s chance for true fiscal conservatism. Even James Delingpole should recognise that.
Featured in Bright Blue's forthcoming magazine 'The Progressive Conscience: Spotlight on America' to be launched at 9,30pm this evening.
