Are the politics of the far- Right more prevalent in countries where electoral systems offer a binary choice of candidates?
The past few years have witnessed an odyssey of change in popular political thought which has been interpreted as an increasing support for the radicalism of the Right. Those views previously considered at the extreme of the ideological spectrum are proving to be more widely-held than previously thought, enjoying normalisation via the rhetoric of movements and parties of this ultra-conservative ilk. A clear by-product of this political progression is the launch of the perennially politically overlooked into a starring role of electoral importance.
To date, Trump-gate and Brexit are rightly considered the greatest expressions of discontent with the political status-quo, both campaigns which successfully levelled their intentions at these disenchanted masses. However, they are by no means the only evidence of such a sentiment. Indeed, if we chart the success of traditionally right-leaning fringe parties in recent elections across the Western world, there is a clear sense that multi-party systems are just as susceptible to the creeping popularity of the far-Right politics as binary systems. The success of this movement is predicated on an anti-Establishment feeling coupled with the successful reading of public discontent by its figureheads.
The most pertinent example of this phenomenon is of course the US election that crowned Donald Trump as president in his virgin political campaign; no mean feat. However, he was running against Hillary Clinton, a name synonymous with the Establishment and a political status-quo that many Americans feel has never worked for them. Given the diametric choice between more of the same, or an unknown quantity, America chose the latter.
Similarly, the success of the UK Independence Party with Nigel Farage at the helm tells a very similar story. In the 2015 election, UKIP became the third party in terms of the popular vote, winning 12.7%, over taking the Liberal Democrats by 5%. This mood of political change continued into the campaign for Brexit, where despite Nigel Farage’s ill-informed rhetoric, the public still trusted his arguments that Brexit was better for Britain, despite the fight of the Government.
More lately, Marine Le Pen has been quoted by several publications, claiming that the impending French election heralds the ‘third act’ of a global far- Right movement. By this, one can assume that she is referring to Brexit and a Trump victory as the first and second acts, of which a Front National victory would be the concluding sequence. There is evidence to support her confidence, with several polls having her and conservative Francois Fillon as the victors of the first round of the presidential ballot.
If indeed Le Pen and Fillon both make it to the second ballot in May, it would signify unprecedented political change in France, a Republic founded upon the principles of a socialist utopia. Indeed, Le Pen’s Front National places Euroscepticism and anti-Immigration policies at the centre of its party platform. For there to be even a moderate chance that such a party would win in France signals a seismic shift in the political beliefs of the country.
To expand this theme, conventional wisdom claims that countries with multi-Party electoral systems like the Netherlands and Germany do not witness such trends of Far Right support. However, electoral success and opinion polls disprove this theory. For example, during the last general election in the Netherlands, the Party for Democracy (a right-wing party advocating Dutch nationalism) secured 12 seats in 2012. Polls have predicted that this same party will win more than double this number in 2017.
The same pattern can also be seen in Germany.The Alternative for Germany is another Right-wing party championing nationalism and Euro-scepticism. In 2013, the AfD won 4.7% of the vote and much like predictions for the Netherlands, this party is expected to almost triple its share of the popular vote in 2017. This trend mirrors that seen in the UK’s conventionally binary system, where in 2010 Farage’s UKIP won 3.1% of the vote in 2010 and 12.6% in 2015; evidence that greater variety of electoral choices does not neutralise the threat of far-Right thought
Thus it’s clear that the politics of the far-Right have come to feel synonymous with opposition to the state across the western world. The trend defies the historic precedent that teaches binary systems suffer more from radical politics than multi-party states. More than anything, there is a perceptible hunger amongst tranches of voters for a radical politics that mobilises their disenchantment. This speaks as much to the failures of Establishment politicians as it does to the successful methods of the far-Right.
Charlotte Smith is a member of Bright Blue and a Researcher in the House of Commons. The views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue.